基于协方差定位ES-MDA自动历史拟合研究

Automatic History Matching Using Covariance Localization in ES-MDA

  • 摘要: 本研究提出一种基于协方差定位改进的ES-MDA算法,并将其应用于自动历史拟合;改进算法结合了协方差局域化技术优势,可有效减少远距离和无关区域的虚假相关对更新过程的负面影响。本文进一步以PUNQ油藏模型为算例,对比了传统ES-MDA算法与基于协方差定位的改进ES-MDA算法在历史数据拟合与模型参数反演两方面的性能。结果表明:对于生产数据拟合,较传统ES-MDA算法,改进ES-MDA算法的拟合误差降低约21.23 %,收敛速度提高约25%,且稳定性更高;在模型参数反演方面,基于改进ES-MDA算法更新的数值模型与参考模型的吻合程度更高,模型参数误差较传统ES-MDA算法降低约4.78%;同时,改进ES-MDA算法在迭代后的散度累计降低了91.72%,表明改进算法具有更佳的数据同化能力和抗过拟合性能。本研究提出了基于协方差定位的ES-MDA自动历史拟合方法,提高了油藏数值模拟拟合精度与稳定性,为高效可靠的油藏模型自动校正提供了参考。

     

    Abstract: Reservoir numerical simulation is a core tool in petroleum engineering, with history matching essential to predictive accuracy and development decisions. Conventional history-matching methods are often inefficient, labor-intensive, and computationally expensive. Although the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA) can accelerate automatic history matching, practical use still suffers from filter divergence and spurious correlations. We propose a covariance-localized ES-MDA that limits long-range, dynamically irrelevant correlations during updates and apply it to the PUNQ benchmark. Compared with conventional ES-MDA, the localized variant, for production-parameter inversion, reduces fitting error by 21.23%, increases convergence speed by 25%, and improves stability; for model-parameter inversion, it yields estimates closer to the reference model, lowering parameter error by 4.78%. It also reduces cumulative post-iteration divergence by 91.72%, indicating stronger data-assimilation capability and better resistance to overfitting. Overall, the covariance-localized ES-MDA enhances the accuracy and stability of reservoir history matching and offers a practical route to efficient, reliable automatic calibration of reservoir models.

     

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