基于XGBoost集成时间特征增强与粒子群优化的换热负荷预测模型研究

Research on heat transfer load prediction model based on XGBoost integrating temporal feature enhancement and particle swarm optimization

  • 摘要: 在供热行业的智能化发展中,换热负荷预测研究中仍存在着时序特征利用不足、传统优化超参数效率低的问题。本文提出了一种采用时序特征增强算法重构特征作为极端梯度提升输入的复合模型,并采用粒子群优化对超参数进行寻优。研究采用递进式推进方法,即按照数据收集-数据预处理-特征构造-模型建立-参数优化的顺序逐步推进,并以大连某住宅小区换热站实测数据进行实验验证。结果表明,模型热量预测的决定系数达到0.9998,均方根误差和平均绝对误差均有所下降。经验证,提出的模型充分挖掘了时序数据的深层特征,表现出来了更好的性能。

     

    Abstract: The accurate prediction of heat transfer load is crucial for the intelligent advancement of the heating industry. However, existing approaches often fall short in fully leveraging temporal characteristics and suffer from inefficient hyperparameter tuning. To overcome these limitations, this paper introduces a hybrid model that integrates a Temporal Feature Enhancement (TFE) algorithm with Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The TFE algorithm reconstructs input features to better capture temporal dynamics, while Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is employed for efficient hyperparameter search. Following a structured pipeline of data collection, preprocessing, feature construction, modeling, and optimization, the model was validated using real-world data from a residential heat exchange station in Dalian. Experimental results demonstrate the model's exceptional performance, achieving a determination coefficient of 0.9998 alongside significant reductions in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). This confirms the model's superior capability in extracting profound patterns from time-series data.

     

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