GMDH方法在堆芯功率与keff预测中的应用

Application of GMDH Method to Core Power and keff Prediction

  • 摘要: 本文基于一种小型堆模型,使用一种自组织神经网络算法GMDH(Group Method of Data Handling),以蒙特卡罗RMC程序三维精细建模计算结果构建数据集,训练出以轴向三节块探测器值为输入、15节块功率值为输出的功率预测代理模型,以及以25个建模参数为输入的keff预测代理模型。功率预测代理模型预测结果相对偏差大多在3 %以内,采用分段多项式拟合方法对预测结果进一步计算得到的芯块级功率预测结果的相对偏差小于5 %;keff预测代理模型的均方根误差小于36 pcm,代理模型预测不确定度与RMC计算统计结果的偏差小于18 pcm。本研究可为代理模型在堆芯功率预测、不确定度分析中的应用提供参考。

     

    Abstract: This study develops surrogate models for a small reactor based on the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH), a self–organizing neural network algorithm. A dataset has been constructed using the computational results from a high–fidelity, three–dimensional RMC model. A power prediction surrogate model has been trained, which takes axial three–section detector readings as input to predict 15-section power distributions. Concurrently, a keff prediction surrogate model has been established using 25 modeling parameters as input. The power prediction model achieves a relative deviation mostly within 3 %. By applying a piecewise polynomial fitting method, the resulting pellet–level power predictions show a relative deviation of less than 5 %. The keff prediction model demonstrates a root mean square error (RMSE) under 36 pcm, with the discrepancy between its predicted uncertainty and RMC's statistical results being less than 18 pcm. This work serves as a valuable reference for applying surrogate models to core power prediction and uncertainty analysis.

     

/

返回文章
返回