基于序贯采样代理模型的高保真仿真模型校准方法

A high-fidelity simulation model calibration method based on sequential sampling surrogate model

  • 摘要: 所有的模型都是真实物理世界的近似,为了提升仿真模型的精度,需要用实测数据对仿真模型的参数进行标校。在进行高保真仿真模型校准时,由于模型本身的计算复杂性和校准过程大量调用仿真,使得总计算成本不可承受。针对计算复杂性挑战,本文提出了一种基于序贯采样代理模型的模型参数校准方法,采用代理模型替换高保真仿真,并且采用序贯加点的策略逐步逼近参数最优取值,从而实现用尽可能少的仿真调用得到最优的参数值,使得模型预测与实测误差最小。该方法可适用于力、热、流等多学科仿真模型的参数校准,具有较强的工程适用性和推广应用价值。航天器热分析模型校准案例验证了该方法的有效性,通过100次高保真仿真调用,对5个模型参数进行校准,校准后参数误差<5%,模型预测与“实测数据”平均误差<0.5℃。

     

    Abstract: All models are approximations of the real physical world. To enhance simulation accuracy, parameters must be calibrated using measured data. However, high-fidelity simulation calibration faces prohibitive computational costs due to the inherent complexity of model calculations and the extensive use of simulations during the calibration process. To address this computational challenge, this paper proposes a calibration method based on sequential sampling surrogate models. By replacing high-fidelity simulations with surrogate models and employing a sequential point-adding strategy, the method progressively approaches optimal parameter values, achieving the best possible parameter settings with minimal simulation calls to minimize prediction-measurement errors. This approach is applicable to multi-disciplinary simulation models in mechanics, thermal analysis, and fluid dynamics, demonstrating strong engineering applicability and broad implementation potential. A spacecraft thermal analysis model calibration case validated the method's effectiveness: Through 100 high-fidelity simulation calls, five model parameters were calibrated with errors below 5%, resulting in an average prediction-measurement error of <0.5°C.

     

/

返回文章
返回