成本与精度约束下的多保真度模型与全局灵敏度分析

Multi-fidelity Modeling and Global Sensitivity Analysis under Cost and Accuracy Constraints

  • 摘要: 面向复杂物理过程的多保真度试验,开展全局灵敏度分析是筛选关键设计因子,进而优化系统、量化不确定性的关键手段。经典基于方差的全局灵敏度分析方法,通常不考虑低保真度样本的累积成本与不同保真度数据的异质性,可能导致多保真度样本量分配不合理。提出一种多保真度灵敏度分析方法(CMFSA):首先,融合单位成本差异与方差贡献度建立多保真度高斯过程模型(MFGP),实现有限预算下的最优初始样本分配;其次,考虑不同保真度数据异质性建立多层次期望提升准则(LREI),开展序贯采样优化代理模型的局部精度;最后,基于多保真度高斯过程模型计算Sobol灵敏度指标,节省计算机求解资源。该方法在标准测试算例与高超声速激波风洞圆柱模型上进行了验证。数值分析结果表明:较传统方法Sobol灵敏度指标计算方法,CMFSA的估计误差显著降低,计算效率明显提升。

     

    Abstract: For multi-fidelity modelling in complex physical systems, conducting global sensitivity analysis serves as a critical tool for identifying the key design factors, out-loop optimization tasks, and uncertainty quantification. Classical variance-based global sensitivity analysis methods often fail to account for the relationship between the cumulative cost of low-fidelity samples and data heterogeneity, which may lead to unreasonable allocation of multi-fidelity sample sizes. A Cost-constrained Multi-fidelity Sensitivity Analysis (CMFSA) method is proposed. First, integrate unit cost differences and variance contribution to establish a multi-fidelity Gaussian process model (MFGP), realizing optimal initial sample allocation under a limited budget. Second, consider the heterogeneity of data with different fidelities to establish a layered expected improvement criterion (LREI), and carry out sequential sampling to optimize the local accuracy of the surrogate model. Finally, calculate Sobol sensitivity indices based on the multi-fidelity Gaussian process model to save computation resources. The method is verified on standard test cases and a HEG shock wind tunnel cylinder model. Numerical analysis results show that compared with the traditional method, the estimation error of Sobol sensitivity index by CMFSA is significantly reduced, and the computational efficiency is obviously improved.

     

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