考虑不确定性量化的典型城市建筑群爆炸载荷的快速估计方法

Rapid Estimation Methods for Blast Loading on Typical Urban Building Clusters Considering Uncertainty Quantification

  • 摘要: 为快速估计复杂城市建筑群中强爆炸冲击波的爆炸载荷,并量化估计结果的不确定性,针对可变当量、爆心距、街道长和宽、建筑物长和宽在较大范围内可变情形下,冲击波在3×3的建筑群中传播时关键位置的超压峰值,研究给出了基于高斯过程回归、神经网络集成和贝叶斯深度学习的快速估计方法。首先采用正交实验设计和数值模拟的方法获取训练数据,然后分别构建高斯过程回归、神经网络集成及贝叶斯深度学习模型,在快速预测爆炸载荷的同时对估计结果的不确定性进行量化。最后采用平均绝对百分比误差和归一化平均预测区间宽度等指标对三种模型的预测精度和不确定性量化准确度进行评估。结果表明:构建的三种模型在144组测试数据上对于超压峰值的平均估算误差分别为11.84%、7.04%和8.51%,置信区间涵盖真实值的百分比分别超过86.11%、98.61%和75.69%,且三种模型均能在2.3 ms内完成对单个测试样本爆炸载荷的估计。

     

    Abstract: To quickly estimate the blast loading from strong blast waves in complex urban building clusters and quantify the uncertainty of the estimates, this study investigates rapid estimation methods based on Gaussian process regression, neural network ensembles, and Bayesian deep learning. The focus is on key locations for peak overpressure in a 3×3 building cluster, considering variables such as equivalent yield, distance to the blast center, and the dimensions of the streets and buildings. First, training data is obtained through orthogonal experimental design and numerical simulations. Then, Gaussian process regression, neural network ensemble, and Bayesian deep learning models are constructed to quickly predict blast loading while quantifying the uncertainty of the estimates. Finally, the models′ prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification are evaluated using metrics such as mean absolute percentage error and normalized average prediction interval width. Results show that the average estimation errors for the peak overpressure across 144 sets of test data are 11.84%, 7.04%, and 8.51%, respectively, with confidence intervals covering the true values in over 86.11%, 98.61%, and 75.69% of cases. All three models can estimate the blast loading for a single test sample within 2.3 ms. The proposed methods provide a new approach and perspective for the rapid and reliable estimation of blast loading in complex urban scenarios.

     

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